Liverpool vs. Aston Villa Odds, Picks, Betting Predictions: Take Aston Villa to Cover Short Number (April 10)


Liverpool vs. Aston Villa Odds

Liverpool Odds : -205

Aston Villa Odds: +540

Draw : +360

Over/Under : 3 (+100 / -122)

Day | Time : Saturday | 10 a.m. ET

TV :  NBCSN

Liverpool will need a convert Aston Villa on Saturday to shut the gap between them and therefore the top-four within the Premier League standings. The Reds are big favorites to urge the three points but are coming off a stimulating week after the international break.

Liverpool looked fantastic during a 3-0 rout over Arsenal at The Emirates on Saturday, but they followed that performance up with a discouraging 3-1 loss at Real Madrid within the Champions League quarterfinals. It’s been a difficult season for Jurgen Klopp, as he’s had to navigate plenty of injuries to key players, but the Reds are only three points behind West Ham for fourth place. So, Liverpool desperately needs all three points from this match.

Aston Villa has also had a stimulating few weeks as they’ve been without their captain and best player, Jack Grealish, for the past seven matches. They’ll likely be without him again on Saturday, so it’s hard to understand if the Villans will appear as if the team that beat Fulham, 3-1, last Sunday or the one that lost reception to Tottenham, 2-0, a fortnight ago

                                                                  Liverpool

Liverpool looked fantastic versus Arsenal last Saturday, holding the Gunners to 3 shots for the match. However, they put up a dud of a performance against Real Madrid Wednesday, as they didn’t even record an attempt within the half of the match.

Things haven’t been going great for manager Jürgen Klopp’s men, who have created 1.41 xG per match since the start of February, compared to 2.07 xG in their first 14 fixtures of the season.

The Reds have a serious tactical problem at the instant. Usually, Klopp plays an all-out, high press that provides teams fits. Liverpool’s high line at the rear also keeps opponents from playing long balls up the sector, causing most of them to spend less time on the ball since they’re forced to form quick passes. With Liverpool’s top three center backs out for the remainder of the season, they need to backtrack Klopp’s patented high press so its fill-in defenders aren’t exposed.

It’ll be interesting to ascertain what starting XI Klopp goes with on Saturday with the second leg against Real Madrid arising on Wednesday. I wouldn’t be surprised in the least to ascertain a number of their best players start on the bench.


                             Aston Villa


Despite being within 9th place, Aston Villa boasts one among the simplest attacks within the Premier League. The Villains are creating 1.58 xG per match, which is that the fifth-best rate within the Premier League. However, they need been missing their do-everything playmaker Jack Grealish over the past two months.


Grealish is liable for six goals and eleven assists to his name. He also has the second-highest expected assists per 90 minute rate behind only Kevin de Bruyne. The Villans have struggled to take chances without him. The table below shows just how important Grealish is for Aston Villa’s attack




However, as you'll see, Aston Villa’s defense hasn’t missed a beat since Grealish has been out, so I feel Liverpool goes to possess a difficult time creating top-quality chances against them.

Aston Villa vs. Liverpool Best Bet


Even without Jack Grealish, I just like the price on Aston Villa during this match, especially with Liverpool during a sandwich spot between Champions League matches. Aston Villa’s defense should be ready to hold a struggling Liverpool attack in restraint, so I prefer the Villans to urge a result on the road.

Since I only have Liverpool projected at -114, I'm getting to back Aston Villa’s spread of +1 at +105 odds.

Pick: Aston Villa +1 (+105)